UncertWeb logo: uncertainty enabled model web

WP3 - Tools for practical application of UncertWeb

In order to support the UncertWeb concept and to lower the barriers to use, we will develop a series of tools to support managing uncertainty in the model web context. These tools will be designed to be as generic as possible and will plug into UncertWeb enabled components and chains.

The tools cover the key tasks that would need to be carried out when using the uncertainty enabled model web. The first stage of uncertainty analysis is to establish the uncertainties on the inputs to the component models. Where this uncertainty is not already well characterised this requires expert elicitation of uncertainty. We will develop a Web-based system to assist in the expert elicitation of uncertainties over continuous scalar inputs using accepted statistical approaches.

The second tool will deal with spatio-temporal aggregation of uncertainties. It is unlikely that all models within the uncertainty enabled model web chains will operate at the same spatial and/or temporal resolution, so an automatic service will be developed to couple uncertain models with different spatial and temporal support. The third tool will deal with communicating and visualising the uncertainties that arise as the outputs of the model chain. This will extend an existing visualisation system, Aguila, to allow it to be plugged into the UncertWeb architecture.

The fourth tool will support uncertainty source identification, using efficient emulator technology where this is needed. In particular the tool will support both uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis. The use of emulators, or surrogate statistical models, for the components in the model chain will facilitate far faster analysis of model webs than would otherwise be possible and open the possibility for full Monte Carlo analysis even in large, complex models.

Finally we will produce guidance as to how the UncertWeb developments can be used to improve decision making.

Workpackages:

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The UncertWeb project has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° [248488].